Curve Commentary: July 20, 2026

Overview

This morning, the war in Iran continues to make headlines amid the possibility of a 10-day ceasefire.  With shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly at a virtual standstill, we are seeing some relief in oil prices this morning as optimism lifts for a potential peace deal.  Last week, reports on US consumer and producer prices, came in much cooler than economists expected.  This is important because these are the final inflation prints this month before the Fed’s meeting next week.  As a result, Fed funds futures are now pricing in a Fed rate hike of 25bp by the October 27-28 meeting (97.5%); which, was previously thought to occur as soon as September.  The current outlook for Fed policy has shifted from two quarter-point hikes by mid-2027, to one hike this year and possibly none next year with declining likelihood starting in June 2027.

Implied Overnight Rate & Number of Hikes/Cuts

Insights and Strategy

In response to last week’s inflation news, the Treasury curve dipped around the policy sensitive two-year tenor while the municipal yield curve shifted higher in response to technical factors.  Inflation concerns with volatile energy prices continue to hold the long-end of the Treasury curve above 5% for maturities past 20-years.  When comparing the municipal yield curve to the Treasury curve, the first 6 months immediately stand-out with the inverted shape of the municipal curve sharply contrasting with the steeply sloped Treasury curve.  Also, as discussed in greater detail below, record issuance and rich ratios are creating some resistance in munis.  The slope at the long-end of the municipal yield curve, past 20-years, remains relatively flat with a total slope of 30 bps from 21-30-years.  Due to this flat tail, municipal bond investors can currently buy 20-year maturities that yield almost 91% of the 30-year curve versus 72.5% for 10-year maturities.

Over the past week, Municipal/Treasury ratios have generally increased (cheapened), although one-year ratios remain notably well below 60%.  In recent weeks, ratios have fallen well below several important reference points along the curve.  Ratios for 10-year municipal yields are now well under 70% of Treasuries, 20-year ratios are below 80% and 30-year ratios are below 90% of Treasuries.  However, ratios have improved across the municipal yield curve over this past week, with the largest changes occurring from five to 10 years.  For investors seeking to maximize curve positioning with relative value, the 19 to 21-year part of the municipal yield curve is attractive with slopes of 10 to 13-bps per year and yields around 80% of Treasuries.  Although ratios past 20-years are more attractive, relative to Treasuries, the yield curve is very flat over these longer tenors. 

The Municipal the new issue calendar remains elevated this week with US state and local governments expected to sell around $11.2 billion of bonds.  Notable deals include: the New York City Transitional Finance Authority with $1.5 billion, the City of San Antonio Airport has $943.9 million, and West Valley-Mission Community College District is expected to bring $497 million to the market.  Last week, municipal bond investors added approximately $1.4 billion to municipal-bond funds, according to LSEG Lipper Global Fund Flows.  Overall, investors continue to support munis, but new issue pricings remain in focus.

Herbert J. Sims & Co. Inc. is a SEC registered broker-dealer, a member of FINRA, SIPC. The information contained herein has been prepared based upon publicly available sources believed to be reliable; however, HJ Sims does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and no independent verification has been made as to its accuracy or completeness. The information contained has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy, and is subject to change without notice. All investments include risks. Nothing in this message or report constitutes or should be construed to be accounting, tax, investment or legal advice.

LeadingAge Ohio Annual Conference & Trade Show

HJ Sims is proud to be attending, sponsoring, exhibiting and speaking at the LeadingAge Ohio Annual Conference & Trade Show.

Attending: Lynn Daly, Executive Vice President & Jim Bodine, Executive Vice President

Come visit us on the EXPO floor at booth 89.

Lynn Daly will be speaking on the topic below:

Speaking Details:

August 25 – 1030am-12:00pm

Topic: Repositioning for Relevance: Strategies to Modernize Aging
Senior Living Campuses

Start a Conversation:

[email protected]

[email protected]

Curve Commentary: July 13, 2026

Overview

The war in Iran continues to make headlines with Iran reportedly insisting that ships obtain permission and the US declaring the Strait is open to all vessels.  This uncertainty has resulted in oil continuing to price at higher levels, West Texas Intermediate is back in the mid 70’s this morning.  Inflation concerns with higher energy prices continue to move the long-end of the Treasury yield curve, with maturities past 20-years now eclipsing 5%.  On the short-end, we are experiencing upward pressure around the policy sensitive 2-year tenor amid speculation the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.  Fed funds futures are now almost fully pricing in a rate hike of 25bp in September (92%), which, as of last week, was previously thought to not occur until December.  This week we will be closely following the US data on CPI and producer prices as they will be the final inflation prints before the Fed’s meeting later this month.

Implied Overnight Rate & Number of Hikes/Cuts

Insights and Strategy

Treasury curves steepened a bit over the past week, while the municipal yield curve followed in sympathy.  However, the slope of the 10 to 30-year municipal curve remains near the tightest levels seen in over a year.  This flattening is the result of shifting expectation for longer maturities as markets adjust inflation expectations against the strength of the economy.  When comparing the municipal yield curve to the Treasury curve, the first 6 months immediately stand-out with the inverted shape of the municipal curve contrasting with the steeply sloped Treasury curve.  The slope at the long-end of the municipal yield curve, past 20-years, remains relatively flat with a total slope of 34 bps from 21-30-years.  Due to this flat tail, municipal bond investors can currently buy 20-year maturities that yield almost 90% of the 30-year curve versus 71% for 10-year maturities.

Over the past week, Municipal/Treasury ratios have generally decreased (richened), with one-year ratios notably well below 60%.  Furthermore, ratios have recently fallen well below several important reference points along the curve.  Ratios for 10-year municipal yields are now well under 70% of Treasuries, 20-year ratios are below 80% and 30-year ratios are below 90% of Treasuries.  For investors seeking to maximize curve positioning with relative value, the 19 to 21-year part of the municipal yield curve is attractive with slopes of 10 to 13-bps per year and yields around 80% of Treasuries.  Although ratios past 20-years are more attractive, relative to Treasuries, the yield curve is very flat over these longer tenors.

The Municipal the new issue calendar remains elevated this week with US state and local governments expected to sell around $12.5 billion of bonds.  Notable deals include: the New York State Thruway Authority, which plans to sell $2.44 billion; Aquarion Water Authority Water System, with $2.37 billion; New Jersey Turnpike Authority, with $1.06 billion; and, Norton Healthcare Obligated Group is expected to bring $504 million to the market.  In addition, technical conditions remain supportive of the primary market.  Last week, municipal bond investors added approximately $1.4 billion to municipal-bond funds, according to LSEG Lipper Global Fund Flows.

Herbert J. Sims & Co. Inc. is a SEC registered broker-dealer, a member of FINRA, SIPC. The information contained herein has been prepared based upon publicly available sources believed to be reliable; however, HJ Sims does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and no independent verification has been made as to its accuracy or completeness. The information contained has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy, and is subject to change without notice. All investments include risks. Nothing in this message or report constitutes or should be construed to be accounting, tax, investment or legal advice.

The 24th Annual HJ Sims Late Winter Conference

Financing Methods and Operating Strategies for Charter Schools and Senior Living

Planning is underway for the 2027 HJ Sims Late Winter Conference, and it’s already shaping up to be an unforgettable experience. Join us for an energizing program featuring dynamic speakers, timely insights, and meaningful opportunities to connect with peers and industry leaders.

We’re thrilled to host our 24th annual conference at the stunning JW Marriott Starr Pass Resort & Spa in Tucson, Arizona . 

For conference attendance, follow our Safety Protocol.

attest

We look forward to welcoming you to an exceptional conference in an unbeatable setting.

For more information, please contact Kat Dymond.

 

 

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JEFFERSON EDUCATION CENTER Case Study (April 2026)

$5,600,000 | April 2026 | Louisville

Partnered Right®

HJ Sims partnered with Louisville Broadway Project, LLC, a student housing developer focused on purpose-built housing near higher education campuses, to support the acquisition of the Jefferson Education Center (JEC) located at 200 W. Broadway in downtown Louisville. The property is adjacent to the Jefferson Community & Technical College (JCTC) campus and is locally known for housing several JCTC administrative departments. The client identified the site as a strategic opportunity to address a growing
need for affordable, conveniently located student housing in downtown Louisville. The immediate financing need was to acquire the existing building while preserving
flexibility for future redevelopment. The acquisition represented the first phase of a broader development strategy that includes the construction of approximately 430 new student housing beds. HJ Sims’ experience in education-related real estate and student housing finance positioned the firm as a natural partner for the transaction.

Structured Right®

HJ Sims structured a private loan of approximately $5.6 million to finance the acquisition of the Jefferson Education Center. The financing structure was intentionally designed to align with the phased nature of the overall project, separating the near term acquisition from the future construction financing. This approach allowed the client to secure the property while maintaining flexibility for subsequent capital markets execution. The structure anticipates a later issuance of approximately $50 million privatized tax-exempt student housing bonds to finance the student housing improvements. By sequencing the financings, the plan of finance reduced execution risk and allowed the client to advance the project in a measured manner. The structure also accommodated the client’s intention to partner with the JCTC Foundation during the development phase. The financing will include a program of student support that will result in improved student retention, higher graduation rates, and wider career opportunities for students after they graduate. Overall, the financing strategy balanced immediate capital needs with long-term project goals.

Executed Right®

HJ Sims served as Placement Agent and successfully executed the private loan transaction on behalf of Louisville Broadway Project, LLC. The firm coordinated the financing process to support a timely closing, enabling the client to acquire a strategically located asset in downtown Louisville. Execution required careful coordination to align the acquisition timeline with the client’s broader development and partnership objectives. Throughout the process, HJ Sims provided hands-on guidance and capital markets expertise. The transaction was structured to support the client’s planned collaboration with the JCTC Foundation and future bond financing. The successful execution positioned the project to move seamlessly into its next phase. This transaction highlights HJ Sims’ ability to deliver customized solutions for complex education-adjacent real estate projects.

Financed Right®

The financing enabled the client to secure a highly strategic site adjacent to the JCTC campus and advance a transformative student housing development. The transaction established a clear path from acquisition through long-term development financing. As a result, the project is positioned to deliver meaningful benefits
to students and the surrounding academic community.

For more information on how this project was Financed Right® by HJ Sims, please contact:

Robert Nickell

214.681.0952

[email protected]

 

Tom Pitcher

435.529.8577

[email protected]

 

Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients. Past performance is no guarantee of future results