In the 40 days to Election Day, we follow a path with many twists and turns, certain only to be surprised by what is around the next corner. We have already had quite a journey this year, one that has taken us into a pandemic, a recession, and in directions never before traveled in terms of fiscal and monetary policy, lockdowns, and behavioral change. The appointment of a new Supreme Court Justice may lead us into a right turn, but other developments could have us bear left. The Federal Reserve has used all of its paving powers to try and keep our economy us on a straight and narrow course – one that may extend out to mile markers in 2023. Financial markets have not always followed it. Stocks have stumbled this past week under a range of pressures. But since Labor Day, the bond markets have been keeping a steady pace. The municipal bond market has seen almost no change in price for three consecutive weeks. Benchmark yields offer us no clue on future direction, although market history since 2014 tells us that the quarter end tends to take us on a downward slope. At this writing the 2-year Treasury yield and the 2-year AAA municipal general obligation bond yield are at 0.13%, the 10-year Treasury yields 0.66% and the tax-exempt counterpart yields more at 0.84%. The 30-year Treasury yields 1.42% while the 30-year muni is higher at 1.58%.
Last week’s $9 billion municipal calendar met with another warm welcome. HJ Sims came to market with an $18.1 million BB rated issue for Presbyterian Villages of Michigan and sold the 4.75% Public Finance Authority bonds due in 2053 at a discount to yield 5.00%. Among other senior living deals, the North Carolina Medical Care Commission had a $96 million BBB+ rated deal for Presbyterian Homes that featured 5.00% bonds due in 2050 at a yield of 3.03%. The Kalamazoo Economic Development Corporation issued $47.8 million of BB rated bonds for Heritage Community’s Revel Creek expansion that had term bonds due in 2055 priced at 5.00% to yield 4.40%. Franklin County, Ohio brought a $27.8 million BBB rated financing for Ohio Living Communities that included 2045 term bonds priced at 4.00% to yield 3.73%. In the education sector, the St. Paul Housing and Redevelopment Authority issued $26 million of BB+ rated charter school bonds for Hmong College Preparatory Academy that had a maximum yield of 3.55% in 2055, and the California School Finance Authority brought a $10.1 million non-rated deal for Real Journey Academies that had a 39-year maturity priced at 5.00% to yield 3.98%.
At these, or even lower rates prevailing for most issuers, the volume is expected to increase for the next five or six weeks. So much uncertainty surrounds Election Day and outcomes that may not be known for days, weeks or months that borrowers are rushing to bring deals to market as soon as possible. This week’s muni calendar is expected to exceed $12 billion. Corporate high yield issuance is only $2.5 billion away from a record high for the year and investment grade issuance is expected to total $30 billion. We encourage you to contact your HJ Sims financial professional to discuss whether your portfolio is well positioned for the twists and turns in the months ahead, how you might better prepare, and which opportunities to anticipate.