by Gayl Mileszko
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‘Twas the night before the Fed meeting and all through the Street
Not a trader was stirring, not even in wheat.
The forecasts were hanging on a vote for a pause,
Or hopes for a cut if in fact there was cause.
Investors were nestled all snug in their cash,
So worried that the Fed might cause a crash.
The President and Congress have basically called it a wrap,
Though so many issues remain on tap.
Then data came out that caused such a clatter
The Fed split its vote and caused all new chatter
Away to their brokers folks flew in a flash,
Afraid their investments might turn into trash.
The fear over prospects of more higher rates
Caused brand new revisions to portfolio weights.
When, what to our wondering eyes should appear,
But a dot plot creating a new trading frontier.
With a number of drivers, some known and some not,
All hoped it would lead to a bigger jackpot.
Less united than ever or sure of their game,
Jay whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:
“Now, Williams! now, Jefferson! now, Goolsbee and Logan!
On, Waller! on, Cook! on, Harker and Bowman!
To the top of the markets! To all brand new highs!
Let’s pause today, pause today, pause today, guys!”
And then, in a twinkling, we heard on the air
The hemming and hawing so known of the Chair.
He answered all questions in so many ways,
We knew not to offer a scolding or praise.   Â
He was dressed in a suit, not a wrinkle to see,
But his words were all scrambled to a certain degree.
A world full of worry he carried on his back, to some quite a savior, to others a quack.
His eyes—how they twinkled! But shoulders so weary.
His predictions were none, he offered no theory.
He uttered some words without real meaning;
Not a person could tell which way he was leaning.
He clung to his script as if for dear life,
But reporters pressed for news of Fed strife.
He had a straight face and seemed to lack humor,
Admitting he was mystified by the American consumer.
He was hawkish and dovish and middle-of-road, Seeing so many signs that the economy slowed.
We all strained to hear more of his personal views Or forecasts of timing — or just any old clues.
He stood tall and steady, and looked straight ahead,
Giving us comfort that we had nothing to dread.
But he spoke not a word that we could follow, As any bad news is deemed too hard to swallow.
When the Q&A finally came to an end,
Jay gave us a smile, he had nothing more to defend.
He turned off the mike, his staff gave a thumbs up,
The outcome to us: once more a tossup.
But we heard him exclaim, as he walked off the floor:
“Merry Christmas to all, see you next year for more.”
We hope you enjoyed our little parody and welcome your feedback. More importantly, here at HJ Sims, we thank you for your relationship. On behalf of our management, banking, sales, trading, analytic and operations teams, please accept our best wishes to you, your families and staff for wonderful holidays and a happy, healthy and successful 2024! We look forward to working with you through the end of this year and into the next!