by Gayl Mileszko

Some of our favorite local coffee shops, lunch spots, and five-star dining rooms where we have celebrated life’s most momentous occasions, have scaled down, converted to take-out or shuttered in the past year. There is no doubt that restaurants have been among the businesses hit hardest during the pandemic. More than 110,000 eating and drinking establishments closed last year, temporarily or permanently. On average, these eateries had been in business for 16 years; 16% had been open for at least 30 years. The restaurant and food service industry which represents about 10 percent of all payroll jobs in the economy has suffered massive damage even with Paycheck Protection Program assistance. The National Restaurant Association estimates that nearly 2.5 million jobs have been erased. Many of those who have struggled to survive have downsized, pivoted to outdoor venues or artisanal grocery stores. They have innovated by creating meal kits, adding alcohol-to-go, or dramatically altering their menus to offer more of the comfort foods in greatest demand from those of us who have been in great need of comfort.

There are approximately 216 Philadelphia area eateries that have closed in the past year but Vetri Cucina is not among them. This highly acclaimed restaurant also features private dining, sponsors classes, and has run an innovative community partnership for the past 12 years along with having a second location in Las Vegas at The Palms. We are pleased to have Chef Marc Vetri, a past James Beard award winner, with us for our Sims Late Winter Conference next week. He will be offering a virtual pasta-making class as one of the four special networking opportunities to conclude our day-long series of keynote speakers, breakout sessions, panels and roundtables on financing methods, operating strategies and technological advancements in senior living. We invite you to join us for the conference. The full agenda and registration process can be accessed via this link.

Philadelphia is just one of more than 19,500 cities, towns, and villages in America significantly impacted by the pandemic. The hits to business and labor have dented state and local revenue while costs related to COVID-19 have soared in many places, producing budget holes that have forced service reductions and layoffs from within a workforce of 18.6 million. State revenues fell 1.6% in FY20 and are expected to decline another 4.4% in FY21, but the variance is significant. Eighteen states are in fact seeing revenue come in ahead of forecasts. Revenue losses may total as much as $300 billion through 2022 while the need for higher spending on health care, jobless aid and food assistance has grown. Federal assistance has totaled $300 billion so far and the debate rages on over the amount and terms to be included in the stimulus bill still making its way through Congress. State and local borrowing has been understandably reduced in the interim. This, in turn, has led to lack of supply in the municipal bond market just as demand for paper, yield, and tax-exempt income has surged.

Municipals are outperforming taxable counterparts for four consecutive weeks and net inflows into municipal bond mutual funds and ETFs exceed $20 billion so far this year. The ICE BoAML Treasury Index is down 0.71%, and the Corporate Index return is down 0.39% but the Muni Index is up 0.34% and the High Yield Muni Index has gained 0.74% as prices reach nosebleed levels. Examples of high priced fixin’s include University of Texas bonds with a 5% coupon due in 2049 which traded last week at $163.429 and New York Dorm Authority bonds for Columbia University due in 30 years at $166.494. The ratio of municipal bond yields to Treasury yields has hit all-time lows, reflecting how rich tax-exempt valuations are relative to governments; the 10-year ratio is 58% and the 30-year is 67%. AAA municipal general obligation bond benchmarks have dropped 3 basis points since the start of the month. The 2-year stands at 0.08%, the 10-year at 0.69% and the 30-year at 1.34%. The 2-year Treasury is flat at 0.10% but the 10-year has gained 14 basis points and stands at 1.20%. The 30-year at 2.00% is up 18 basis points. Over $14 billion of U.S. high yield corporate bonds priced last week and yields fell below 4% for the first time in the market’s history. Party City received orders in excess of $3.5 billion for a $750 million five-year corporate bond offering rated Caa1/CCC+ which was increased in size and priced two days earlier than expected at a price of 8.75%. On the equity side, volatility has dropped by 40% on positive vaccine and stimulus news; the VIX Index at 19.97 is down from the year’s high at 33.09. The rally in stocks continues. The Dow is up over 5%, the S&P 500 up 6%, and the Russell 2000 up 10%. The Nasdaq, which just marked its 50th birthday, has gained 7.8%. Oil prices have increased more than $7 a barrel to exceed $60, silver prices are up 1.4% and Bitcoin has skyrocketed more than 37%.

The best news is that COVID case counts have dramatically declined since the peak on January 8. The daily trend in the number of reported COVID-19 deaths has significantly fallen since the worst days on April 15 and February 12. More than 52 million doses have been administered since December 14, reaching 11.5% of our population. There is nevertheless still talk of possible travel bans and /or negative testing mandates for interstate air travel. Such trends and chatter are of course very closely monitored by global financial markets. There are of course many other major market moving events, including disruptive ones such as the deep freeze in Texas, unexpected tweets on cryptocurrency buys, fast-moving IPO’s like Bumble, and Gamestop-like gambits. Traders continue to linger over every word uttered by Federal Reserve Bank officials. Every step in the process of producing a multi-course stimulus package is being noted even though no final menu is expected until next month at the earliest. There are also fourth quarter corporate earnings, Treasury auctions and daily economic reports to feast upon. Fears of new strains, inflation, and negative rates are often peppered in.

In this holiday-shortened week, about $6 billion of municipal bonds are expected to come to market, including $1.8 billion of taxable munis. Last week’s calendar totaled $7.5 billion. In the high yield sector, the Oklahoma Development Finance Authority issued $72.1 million of non-rated revenue bonds for the Oklahoma Proton Center including 2051 term bonds priced at par to yield 7.25% and taxable 2041 term bonds priced at par to yield 11%. The Suffolk County Economic Development Authority in New York sold $35.6 million of non-rated revenue bonds for St. Johnland Assisted Living structured with 2054 term bonds priced at 5.375% to yield 5.325%. Gallatin County, Montana came to market with $7.3 million of non-rated taxable industrial development bonds for Bridger Aerospace Group that had a sole maturity in 2040 priced with a coupon of 6.50% to yield 6.75%. For today’s high yield taxable and tax-exempt offerings, we encourage you to contact your HJ Sims representative.

by Gayl Mileszko

On Groundhog’s Day, we learned that there are six more weeks of winter ahead and we were not surprised. Gobbler’s Knob was perfectly reflective of much of America: full of excitement over the prospect of good news but depressed by the prevailing climate, the big COVID-19 shadow hovering over everything, and the virtual nature of this year’s celebration causing us to watch yet another event live-streamed to our remote burrows. Even though we live in an era of smart phones and mega data, we still eagerly anticipate the groundhog’s prognostication every February 2nd. The little eight-pound rodent may be wrong 75% of the time but, full of hope, we still tune into the annual announcement from the inner circle of top-hatted club members. This year was particularly gloomy for the rural western Pennsylvania borough, as it has been for many towns reliant upon tourism. The annual festivities, which typically bring in as many as 50,000 revelers and $4 million of revenues, were limited to a small number of organizers due to the Pandemic.

The past year has created a painful emotional bookmark for billions of people with its unforgettable sacrifices and losses. While many traditions have been upheld in some form, COVID-19 has been a huge disrupter, and an accelerant of change. It has revealed broken health systems, brittle supply chains, deep political divisions, a fragile social fabric and real economic inequality, forever changing much about what we value, how we reason, how we make decisions. Many industries and neighborhoods have been entirely transformed. Some of this may have been inevitable. Nonetheless, there are many positives to be found. Communities and causes have become very important to us and a tremendous amount of good and good will has been generated. Health care heroes have worked selflessly to care for the stricken, and we developed new appreciation for our farmers, truckers, grocery store, manufacturing, and pharmacy workers as brilliant minds converged to create and deliver vaccines in record time. Further developments in artificial intelligence, retail robotics, drone deliveries, cellular medicine, 3-D printing, and urban agriculture, to name a few, have been accelerated. We expect to see innovators and entrepreneurs deliver spectacular new products and services in the months and years ahead.

Future trends are among the topics that we will address in more depth at the HJ Sims 18th  Annual Late Winter Conference later this month. The virtual gathering will focus on how the Pandemic has impacted retirement living and planning, some of the new strategies, technologies and best practices being employed by senior living providers, and innovative ways to finance acquisitions, developments, and expansions. To attend the virtual event being held on Wednesday, February 24, please register at hjsims.com/2021lwc.

The first month of 2021 just came to a close. January was a symphony in at least three movements involving mass vaccinations, new swearing-ins, and short squeezes that ended on many uncertain notes. The Fed kept short-term rates unchanged, as everyone expected, and is continuing its bond-buying program at $120 billion per month. The initial reading for fourth quarter gross domestic product came out at 4%, below expectations. Many market observers were mesmerized and traders were distracted by the retail investor-fueled rallies in extremely shorted stocks including GameStop and AMC, portrayed by some in the media as a modern day David and Goliath story. Stock markets reacted in shock and weakened as trading and clearing operations were disrupted by restrictions, margin calls, and delays. In addition, investors began to face the realities of very different energy, trade, immigration, regulatory, and tax policies as the new Administration issued executive orders. The VIX volatility index rose 6% on the month, the Dow lost 2% and the S&P fell 1%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.4% and the Russell 2000 climbed 5% as fourth quarter earnings season began. Oil prices increased by 7.6% to $52.20, silver was up 2.4% to $26.98, and Bitcoin gained 25% to close at $35,725 while gold prices fell 2.5% to $1,847.

U.S. Treasuries lost 1.13% in January and high grade corporate bonds fell 1.23% while high yield corporates gained 0.37%. The 2-year Treasury yield closed down 2 basis points on the month to 0.10% while the 10-year increased by 15 basis points to 1.06% and the 30-year ended 18 basis points higher at 1.82%. The 10-year Baa corporate bond benchmark yield rose by 10 basis points to 2.75%. Investment grade corporate issuance on the month totaled $127.5 billion with the financial sector accounting for 62%. High yield issuance totaled $49 billion, the third largest monthly total on record, and demand remains very strong: PetSmart, for example, saw more than $12 billion of orders for its $2.35 billion CCC rated deal. In other fixed income sectors, convertible bonds returned +3.55% in January while preferreds lost 1.36%

The municipal market posted a 0.65% gain last month; high yield led the way with returns of 1.91%. Transportation bonds gained 1.56% and hospital bonds were up 0.72%. Taxable munis maturing in 10-15 years finished 1.31% higher. The 2-year AAA general obligation benchmark yield fell 2 basis points to finish at 0.11%, the 10-and 30-year yields ended basically flat at 0.72% and 1.38%, respectively. The traditional relationship with U.S. Treasuries has been upended. Municipal/Treasury ratios dropped to new lows with the 10-year at 67% and the 30-year at 76%. Investors added record amounts of cash to municipal bond funds and ETFs, $10.7 billion so far this year. As is typical for January, new issue supply was low at $24 billion, with $6.7 billion coming as taxable debt, and the clamor for bonds with yield was unrelenting. The Chicago Board of Education sold $558 million of BB-/BB rated bonds at levels unrelated to its credit in the midst of a threatened strike by teachers. General obligation bonds due in 2041 were priced with a coupon of 5.00% to yield 2.24%, only 105 basis points over the AAA benchmark yield. The issue was reportedly 30 times oversubscribed. The CSCDA Community Improvement Authority issued $176 million of non-rated multifamily housing revenue debt designated as social bonds due in 2056 at a rate of 4.00% to yield 3.55%. The District of Columbia came to market with a $28.1 million non-rated charter school financing for Rocketship structured with 2061 term bonds priced at 5.00% to yield 3.33%.

February begins the second chapter of the 12-month investment cycle and we encourage you to contact your HJ Sims representative for a conversation on preparedness. What should you do? What should you NOT do? If there is one thing we have learned in the past year, it is that we are in a transition, with a new kind of permanent volatility, and we need to take preparedness to a new level. We are surrounded by predicters, from groundhogs to Nobel economists, from strategists to futurists, mystics to pollsters, entrepreneurs to oddsmakers but they all missed the timing and extent of the Pandemic that made Time Magazine declare 2020 the “worst year ever”. More surprises are undoubtedly in store. It makes sense to seek the best advice possible so as to be prepared as best we can to adapt to whatever the future has in store.